Rundle Group

Rundle Group

For Recent Papers on Earthquake Forecasting Click Here

Papers By:
J. Rundle

Presentations By:
J. Rundle

Recent Research Results

1. Numerical Simulations of the dynamics of earthquakes on Earthquake Fault Systems (see PB Rundle et al., Phys. Rev. Lett., 87, 148501 (2001); JB Rundle et al. PAGEOPH, in press (2002):




Data assimilated into the model. Historic earthquakes in southern California during last 200 years. See SCEC for details.



Modeled three-dimensional fault system in southern California.




   Space-time plot of Coulomb Failure Function (CFF) stress buildup and release on model fault system. Horizontal lines are earthquakes. Red colors represent high CFF stress, blue colors represent low CFF stress.



Example of a great earthquake during the simulation, similar to the magnitude ~8.3 Fort Tejon earthquake of 1857.




GPS-type horizontal surface displacement vectors that would be observed associated with the simulated earthquake above.



InSAR-type fringes that would be observed at C-band of the surface deformation associated with the simulated earthquake above.

2. Earthquake Forecasting. For details, see Tiampo et al., PAGEOPH, in press (2002); and Rundle et al., PNAS, in press (2002):

An example of an earthquake forecast made using our PDPC method.

Here are some additional links to a recent talk and the movies that go with it:

1. Talk given at USGS

2. Northridge Movie

3. InSAR movie

Research: Driven nonlinear threshold systems are known to be some of the most important and interesting systems in nature. They include networks of earthquake faults, neural networks, superconductors and semiconductors, and the World Wide Web, as well as political, social, and ecological systems. All of these systems have self-organizing dynamics that are strongly correlated in space and time, and all typically display a multiplicity of spatial and temporal scales. They are usually characterized by observable phenomena that can be understood with modern methods of space-time pattern analysis, and by a highly nonlinear, complex underlying dynamics whose evolution in space in time is extremely difficult to observe, understand, or predict.

Our group focuses on developing the theoretical and computational methods needed to understand these classes of driven, non-equilibrium threshold systems. We are particularly interested in developing the computational tools necessary to simulate these high-dimensional complex systems within the context of modern, web-based, high performance computing methods using Beowulf clusters and other types of parallel, SMP machines. We view the development of the emergent, Semantic Grid as a particulary promising technology, and we are pursuing the development of emergent computational paradigms. Computational simulations thus represent a major tool and a major focus of our research. Much of our work is concerned with a particularly important threshold system in nature, earthquake fault systems.

Here we focus on a systems approach to the development of simulations of earthquake fault systems, with a view towards developing the software and theoretical infrastructure needed to understand and predict these potentially catastrophic events. Emergent computing for such systems arising from the Semantic Grid will incorporate certain key capabilities to produce the desired effect of digital brilliance. These capabilities will be capable of coupling code execution with code performance, will be capable of supporting and fusing multiple observational sources and will be capable of reconciling simultaneously computations at multiple scales.

Members of Our Research Group Include:

Faculty

John Rundle

Interdisciplinary Professor of Physics, Civil & Environmental Engineering and Geology

Director, Center for Computational Science and Engineering

Don Turcotte

Professor of Geology

University of California, Davis

Research Staff

Robert Scherbakov (CSE)

Gleb Morein (CSE)

Students