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Computational Science and Engineering > Public > Events > Natural Hazards as Self-Organizing Complex Systems Personal tools Log in Natural Hazards as Self-Organizing Complex Systems Don Turcotte presents Natural Hazards as Self-Organizing Complex Systems What Seminar When 2005-11-03 04:10 PM 2005-11-03 05:00 PM November 03, 2005 from 04:10 pm to 05:00 pm Where PES 3001 Add event to calendar vCal iCal Don Turcotte from the Geology Department at UC Davis will give a seminar titled Natural Hazards as Self-Organizing Complex Systems. All are invited to attend. A sequence of cellular automata models have been proposed as examples of "self-organized criticality". Three of these have direct applications to natural hazards: the sand-pile model to landslides, the forest-fire model to forest and wild fires, and the slider-block model to earthquakes. the relationship of these models to critical point phenomena will be discussed, in particular the relationship of the forest-fire model to the critical-point behavior of the site percolation model. An inverse cascade model that explains the behavior of both SOC and natural hazards will be shown. In addition to discussing the frequency area statistics of landslides, forest and wild fires, and earthquakes; the recurrence statistics of floods will be considered. It will be shown that the current application of log Pearson type 3 statistics to flood frequency analyses is fundamentally flawed.